Documented pledges · scored as of 2026-09-21
Promise Tracker
Seven topics. Each card: the promise (verbatim or closely paraphrased, with outlet + date), meter/status, what happened. Status labels are editorial curation for accountability—not court findings. Contested or thin pledges are marked.
Ukraine · Iran · Palestine · Gas · Tax refunds · Groceries · Inflation
1. Ukraine
The promise
“I will get it settled before I even become president. If I win, when I’m president-elect… I’ll speak to one, I’ll speak to the other, I’ll get them together.”
Donald Trump, presidential debate vs. Kamala Harris, Sept. 10, 2024. He also repeatedly said “within 24 hours” / “before I even arrive at the Oval Office” on the 2023–2024 trail (CNN Politics catalogued ≥53 instances, Apr. 25, 2025).
The meter / status
UNSETTLED · 608 days since 2025-01-21 anchor
- Days since inauguration: 609 (anchor 2025-01-20)
- Campaign claim variants: “24 hours,” “before Oval Office,” “as president-elect”
- Current public status (2026-09-21): war ongoing; energy-pause diplomacy floated; Kremlin says no progress
What happened
NBC News (Apr. 29, 2025) scored the Day One / before-inauguration end-war pledge Failed at 100 days. Fighting continued through 2025 and into 2026.
When reminded of the “day one” line, Trump told Time (Apr. 2025) it was figurative / “in jest.” CNN’s Dale (Apr. 25, 2025) listed 53 on-trail repetitions delivered in serious agenda contexts, including both 2024 presidential debates.
Sept. 21, 2026 coverage: Trump to press Zelenskyy at UN week for an energy ceasefire/pause; Russian officials said negotiations were not advancing.
Sources: PBS / debate clip Sept. 11, 2024; CNN Politics Apr. 25, 2025; NBC News Apr. 29, 2025; The Guardian Sept. 21, 2026; Kyiv Post Sept. 2026.
2. Iran
The promise
“I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.”
Donald Trump, election victory speech, Palm Beach, Nov. 6, 2024 (American Presidency Project / NBC transcript). Separately, he repeatedly said Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon. Later comments denying he “promised anything” on wars are contested against this record (NBC Meet the Press coverage, 2025–2026).
The meter / status
TWELVE-DAY WAR · start +465d PEACE-THROUGH-STRENGTH vs “STOP WARS”
Timeline meter uses the public June 13, 2025 start of the Israel–Iran Twelve-Day War (ceasefire ~June 24). U.S. strike participation is on the public record for that episode.
What happened
Victory-night framing: stop wars, not start them. Parallel hard line: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. June 2025’s Twelve-Day War put those lines in tension; Trump later said the nuclear program had been “obliterated” and a paper deal might not be necessary.
Subsequent NBC interviews captured Trump distinguishing “endless” wars from shorter uses of force and, at times, denying he had promised not to fight—an interpretation contested by the Nov. 6, 2024 transcript.
This desk meters the named conflict and cites both the peace slogan and the nuclear red line without inventing a single negotiated “deal” outcome that the public record does not support.
Sources: American Presidency Project, Nov. 6, 2024; Washington Examiner, June 26, 2025; NBC News Iran campaign-vs-war reporting.
3. Palestine · Israel / Gaza
The promise
“When I return to the White House, we will quickly restore stability in the Middle East, and we will return the world to peace.”
Donald Trump to the Israeli-American Council, Washington, September 2024 (NBC News, Apr. 29, 2025 promise tracker). Related: Dec. 2, 2024 Truth Social — if Gaza hostages not released prior to Jan. 20, 2025, “there will be ALL HELL TO PAY” (Reuters, Dec. 2, 2024).
The meter / status
PARTIAL CEASEFIRES · END-STATE OPEN
- Jan. 15, 2025: three-phase ceasefire announced (collapsed March 18, 2025)
- Hostages: phased releases across 2025–2026 deal windows; living-hostage phase later reported complete in Oct. 2025 frameworks
- Broader 20-point end-state (disarmament, withdrawal, governance): incomplete as of 2026 assessments
What happened
Campaign: “quickly restore stability” and “return the world to peace” (IAC, Sept. 2024). Transition threat: “ALL HELL TO PAY” if hostages not freed by Jan. 20, 2025 (Truth Social / Reuters, Dec. 2, 2024).
Early win claim: Jan. 15, 2025 ceasefire. NBC’s 100-day tracker still marked “End the war in Gaza” as Failed after the March restart. Later Trump said he wanted the war to stop in the “not too distant future” (Reuters, Apr. 7, 2025).
Later deal architecture released remaining living hostages in stages; six-month reviews (e.g., J Street; CFR guides) describe fragile ceasefire phases with unresolved political endgame. “Peace restored” remains an unfinished ledger line.
Sources: NBC News Apr. 29, 2025; Reuters Dec. 2, 2024 & Apr. 7, 2025; CFR Gaza peace deal guide; J Street ceasefire assessments.
4. Gas
The promise
“We’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon.”
Donald Trump, Economic Club of New York, Sept. 5, 2024 (PolitiFact MAGA-Meter). Related: Aug. 2024 stump line to “cut your energy costs in half within 12 months” (NBC News); RNC July 18, 2024 “We will drill, baby, drill.”
The meter / status
AAA ≈ $4.48/gal (2026-09-21) vs DOCUMENTED <$2 CLAIM
Also track: “energy costs in half within 12 months” of taking office (Aug./Oct. 2024 stump). Twelve-month window from Jan. 20, 2025 closed without a halved national retail average.
What happened
PolitiFact’s MAGA-Meter tracks the sub-$2 gasoline statement from the Sept. 5, 2024 Economic Club of New York appearance. Scoreboard AAA print: ~$4.48.
Production and permitting moves occurred; Exxon and other producers publicly doubted that “drill, baby, drill” alone would force pump prices to campaign targets (Guardian, Nov. 19, 2024 context; later 2025–2026 price path).
Sources: PolitiFact; NBC News; Fox News PA rally energy vows; AAA; EIA. Chart on Home § Gas.
5. Tax refunds
The promise
“There’s even under consideration a new concept where we give 20 percent of the DOGE savings to American citizens and 20 percent goes to paying down debt.”
Donald Trump, Foreign Investment Summit, Miami, Feb. 19, 2025 (Newsweek). This was an early-administration concept endorsement of James Fishback’s “DOGE Dividend” idea—not a specific 2024 campaign rebate amount. No such checks were enacted. Viral “$5,000 DOGE check approved” claims were false (PolitiFact, Feb. 26, 2025).
The meter / status
CONCEPT ONLY · NOT ENACTED 2024 CAMPAIGN: THIN / ABSENT
Editorial note: if a specific campaign rebate quote surfaces with a clean primary source, this card will be updated. Until then, the desk refuses to invent one.
What happened
Closest documented item: Feb. 19, 2025 Miami remarks endorsing consideration of returning 20% of DOGE-claimed savings to citizens (Newsweek). Fishback’s social-media sketch of ~$5,000 checks required implausible $2T savings plus legislation.
PolitiFact (Feb. 26, 2025): it was not “official” that Trump approved $5,000 DOGE stimulus checks. No such program shipped. GAO and outside auditors later questioned DOGE savings accounting.
Do not confuse with leftover IRS Recovery Rebate Credit payments under prior COVID-era law—those are not DOGE dividends.
Sources: Newsweek Feb. 19, 2025; PolitiFact Feb. 26, 2025; PBS NewsHour; GAO DOGE savings products.
6. Price of groceries
The promise
“When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One.”
Donald Trump, August 2024 New Jersey press conference staged with groceries (CNN Business, Jan. 28, 2025; NBC News Apr. 29, 2025).
The meter / status
DAY ONE DROP: FAILED CLOCK
Anchor: inauguration 2025-01-20. “Immediately… Day One” is a binary timing claim. Grocery price indexes did not gap down on that day.
What happened
CNN Business (Jan. 28, 2025): eggs more expensive in the first week; lawmakers noted backtracking language that bringing prices down is “hard.”
CNN Politics (Apr. 23, 2025) fact-checked later claims that groceries and eggs had “come down” dramatically; March 2025 food-at-home CPI was still rising, and egg-drop percentages cited by the president did not match BLS levels.
NBC item trackers later show eggs down from spring-2025 peaks in some windows while beef and other staples climbed—mixed baskets, not a Day One collapse in the grocery bill.
Sources: CNN Business Jan. 28, 2025; CNN Politics Apr. 23, 2025; The Hill/Nexstar grocery follow-ups; NBC News grocery tracker; BLS.
7. Inflation
The promise
“I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy. We will drill, baby, drill.”
Donald Trump, Republican National Convention acceptance speech, Milwaukee, July 18, 2024 (American Presidency Project / ABC News).
The meter / status
BLS CPI-U YoY Aug 2026 = 3.4%
“End… immediately” is the scored timing word. A multi-year path that sometimes cools and sometimes reheats is not an immediate end.
What happened
RNC night promise paired inflation relief with energy cost cuts and “drill, baby, drill.” Early 2025 prints showed some cooling; later prints and the Aug. 2026 3.4% YoY reading kept the crisis-ended claim unmet.
Homepage chart plots published CPI against a labeled rhetoric-expectation glide—not a Fed forecast. Energy index strength in the same BLS release undercuts the paired energy promise.
Sources: American Presidency Project / ABC RNC coverage July 18, 2024; BLS CPI-U; NBC News Apr. 29, 2025.
Slug remains /pledges/. Charts live on Home under Gas and Inflation.